![]() ![]() hegemony may reduce the provision of public goods such as security of shipping lanes and pipelines. Second, the low oil prices of the 1990s have given way to higher and more volatile prices, increasing the magnitude of the consequences one can expect from oil-conflict linkages. As many as sixteen developing countries will become oil exporters in the near future, creating a swath of new international security concerns. The first is the shift in patterns of global oil production away from traditional suppliers in the Middle East and toward (1) suppliers of unconventional oil reserves in North America and (2) new suppliers of conventional oil, especially in Africa. The linkages between oil and international conflict are growing increasingly important in light of three transitions under way in global energy markets. These mechanisms can contribute to conflict individually or in combination. Oil fuels international conflict through eight distinct mechanisms: (1) resource wars, in which states try to acquire oil reserves by force (2) petro-aggression, whereby oil insulates aggressive leaders such as Saddam Hussein or Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini from domestic opposition, and therefore makes them more willing to engage in risky foreign policy adventurism (3) the externalization of civil wars in oil-producing states ("petrostates") (4) financing for insurgencies-for instance, Iran funneling oil money to Hezbollah (5) conflicts triggered by the prospect of oil-market domination, such as the United States' war with Iraq over Kuwait in 1991 (6) clashes over control of oil transit routes, such as shipping lanes and pipelines (7) oil-related grievances, whereby the presence of foreign workers in petrostates helps extremist groups such as al-Qaida recruit locals and (8) oil-related obstacles to multilateral cooperation, such as when an importer's attempt to curry favor with a petrostate prevents multilateral cooperation on security issues. public debates about the 19 Iraq wars, both sides focused excessively on the question of whether the United States was fighting for possession of oil reserves neither sought a broader understanding of how oil shaped the preconditions for war. The influence of oil on conflict is often poorly understood. No other commodity has had such an impact on international security. ![]() Between one-quarter and one-half of interstate wars since 1973 have been connected to one or more oil-related causal mechanisms. The oil industry can cause or exacerbate conflict in multiple ways: competition over shipping lanes and pipelines, oil-related terrorism, petro-aggression, and resource scarcity in consumer states are all potential sources of international conflict.Īlthough the threat of "resource wars" over possession of oil reserves is often exaggerated, the sum total of the political effects generated by the oil industry makes oil a leading cause of war.
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